Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Self-fulfilling polls - prophecies or what? (From Canada Eh...)

The other day I read on the Globe http://www.globeandmail.com, that some of the behind-the-scenes campaign workers in the Liberal party were disheartened about the latest polls suggesting that the Conservatives were "gaining ground" quite rapidly. Some have apparantly begun seeking other political and vocational paths and opportunities should the Liberals lose the election. If this is how the insiders close to the candidates feel in response to the polls, then how should the voters feel...? Are these polls meant to inform voting trends and aid further critical analysis or are they actually influencing voting behavior? There is some empirical evidence to suggest the latter. In a world overloaded with complex arguements and issues, voters (especially those who are yet uncertain about the candidate, party or the colour of tie they like best) often look to these numbers on day-to-day polls taken by research houses. These research institutes who are often affiliated to media organizations or atleast trying to be affiliated with them, are sensitive to the fact that many of the major media corporations have strong political leanings. In the Great White North here, there are news-media personalities who have gone beyond political analysis to actually running for election or taking on powerful portfolios in government. It seems to me that in their attempts to seek greater market presence and profit, sensitivity to media politics may exceed the margin of error reported in these polls by these research groups. Members of the news-media should realize that they are playing a similar role that popular entertainers play when they affiliate themselves with political candidates. Members of the press should realize that they are no longer depicting natural variation in voting behavior but are actually reducing political freedom in this country by presenting these statistics without responsible analysis (e.g., discussing historical and psychological factors that affect the numbers).

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